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CURRENT LETTER

 
The Kiplinger Washington Editors
May 16, 2008
 

The Outlook
For Inflation

Overall prices will rise 4% this year -- on a par with last year -- but inflation clearly feels much worse for businesses and households struggling to pay bills. This week's Kiplinger Letter analyzes the various pressures impacting prices and forecasts when inflation will ease.
 
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Winners in a Down Economy

Not all businesses are hurting. In fact, some are humming right along.
 
 

Even as the U.S. economy falters, plenty of companies are thriving.

Some winners are relatively obvious. Energy and agriculture are doing well because prices are high and demand is strong. Exporters benefit from the weak dollar and strong growth abroad. That group is diverse and ranges from defense to soft drink makers to computer firms. Sales of PCs, for example, are up only 3.5% in the U.S. but 15% worldwide.

Other winners are much less apparent, including companies that sell to other firms. Signal Metal Industries in Irving, Texas, says business is booming as steelmakers and miners buy heavy equipment. Click Bond in Carson City, Nev., is running at full capacity to keep up with demand for airplane fasteners.

Some gain at the expense of others. Business is brisk for debt collectors, auto repossession firms, credit counselors and companies that clean up foreclosed homes.

Auto repair shops are busy as consumers put off buying new cars. Families trying to save money will shun fancy restaurants for fast food. They'll also eat at home more often, adding to sales at grocery stores.

Campgrounds, rental-home owners and parks expect a good summer as vacationers seek cheaper alternatives to hotels and pricey activities.

Other firms have niches that seem immune to economic downturns. Health care is staying strong, especially with an aging population. Demand for video games and other electronics is still high. Parents still buy all kinds of toys. Women still use skin care products.

Contractors for governments at all levels are seeing lots of growth. So are lobbyists, as their clients fight harder for scarce tax dollars.

Scrap metal retrieval is big, too. Al-Jon, an Iowa firm that makes compactors and machines to separate scrap metal, increased its staff by 60 last year and needs even more workers to handle growing demand for its products. Kendig Kneen, Al-Jon's CEO, says: "Business is up about 30%. It's close to being recession-proof."

Spending on pets is expanding, helping retailers such as Petco. Pet health insurers are seeing surging sales, with revenue from premiums set to increase 25% this year and probably for every year through 2012.

Tutoring services in math and English say business is solid. Lawyers are busy as mergers increase. There's also lots of legal work involving regulations as well as many foreclosures and bankruptcies to handle.

Martha Lynn Craver, Laura Kennedy, Jonathan Crawford and Ted Reinert contributed to this story.

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