A slow global economy and high fuel prices are hitting airlines around the world hard, forcing global cutbacks. Between now and the end of the year, the world's airlines will offer about 60 million fewer seats, according to a recent report by OAG, the Official Airline Guide. That amounts to a 7% drop compared with the same time last year.
The reductions won't help carriers much. The global airline industry is expected to post losses of $5.2 billion in 2008, according to the International Air Transport Association. "The situation remains bleak. The toxic combination of high oil prices and falling demand continues to poison the industry's profitability," says Giovanni Bisignani, the association's director general and CEO.
The U.S. will see the biggest decline in capacity. One reason is that U.S. carriers have more fare competition from low cost carriers, making it harder for them to hike fares. Also, the weak dollar means that U.S. airlines pay more for fuel than their foreign counterparts.
But Asian and European carriers will take significant hits as well. Asia is on track for a 13% drop in capacity. In Europe, one of the strongest foreign airlines, British Airways, will cut the frequency of flights on some routes, eliminate service on others and delay planned expansions to more cities. Some weaker carriers, such as SAS, Alitalia and Olympic, may not survive.
The result for travelers will be higher fares and fewer choices. Airline analysts say fares need to go up 20% because of the high cost of fuel, but actual increases are more likely to be around 8%, as demand drops in the slowing economy. "And loss of service will continue into next year…until an equilibrium is reached on supply and demand," says Vaughn Cordle, CEO and chief analyst of AirlineForecasts. Figure on as much as another 5% reduction in capacity in the U.S. in 2009, and 10% globally, according to Cordle.
Some airports will lose service altogether -- 275, including 32 in the U.S., 61 in China and 26 in Russia. U.S. airports include Athens, Ga.; Salem, Ore.; Youngstown, Ohio; Santa Fe, N.M.; Jonesboro, Ark., and Kingman, Ariz.
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