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Plug-ins -- autos with batteries that you can recharge nightly -- will likely hit showrooms in two years as manufacturers push to meet new mileage standards. The future plug-ins really are hybrids that average 80 to 100 miles per gallon of gasoline. But the new cars won't need gasoline for most daily commutes and errands. An overnight charge will keep cars running for up to 40 miles without having to tap the gas tank.
First cars off the line: General Motors' Chevy Volt and Saturn Vue Green Line. GM wants to quickly ramp up production to 100,000 plug-ins annually,and by 2015, grow it to a half million vehicles. Toyota also set 2010 as a rollout date for a plug-in Lexus. Others automakers are likely to follow suit.
Sticker prices on the Chevy Volt and Saturn Vue Green Line will be a bit below that of the Prius, which typically sells for $3,000 to $5,000 more than for a comparable gasoline-only powered vehicle, about $18,000.
The surge in the development of plug-ins is prompted by a new energy law requiring automakers' fleets to achieve an average of 35 miles per gallon by 2022. That's about a 40% increase from the current Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) mandate for cars, SUVs, pickup trucks and vans.
Plug-ins are a dramatic break from the automakers' long-running emphasis on muscle cars, SUVs and trucks. They'll continue to build such vehicles, of course, but those vehicles will be modified to be more fuel efficient. These changes along with new plug-in models will help meet new fleet standards. For example, new diesel engines with turbochargers that boost fuel efficiency by one-third will be standard on lumbering pickups and full size SUVs. Meanwhile, engines in smaller SUVs and large cars will be outfitted with direct injection systems that boost gasoline fuel efficiency by 20% to 30%.
"There's no silver bullet, so instead, each automaker will adopt a specific technology that's best suited to the vehicle based on its size, weight and performance consumers expect," says Paul Lacy, manager of technical research for the consulting firm, Global Insight.
GM is pushing to get its plug-ins on the road first in a bid throw its competitors off balance long enough for the automaker to reestablish itself as the industry's unquestioned technology whiz, and recoup its slumping market share. Plug-ins are sure to help GM's bottom line because the Volt and its siblings will have electric drive trains and other systems, letting the automaker slash costs and vehicle weight.
Meanwhile, GM is also looking down the road at the next generation of plug-ins -- hybrid vehicles that burn almost no gasoline. They would run on both battery power and E85 fuel -- a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline. For now, E85 is a nonstarter. Though there's enough ethanol being made to meet refiners' needs for blending into unleaded gasoline, it would be a huge stretch to ramp up ethanol production five-fold to fuel fleets of E85 cars and other vehicles that use regular gas.
GM is betting on a breakthrough that will make ethanol as plentiful as gasoline by investing in Costaka Inc., a company that says it has perfected technologies that will enable it to make large quantities of cellulosic ethanol -- fuel produced from grasses and other plants as well as agricultural waste -- starting in 2011 for around $1 per gallon. "Making ethanol for $1 per gallon isn't just a game changer. It's a whole new ballgame," says David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, an auto industry consultancy. E85 fuel that retails for even $2 per gallon will steeply undercut gasoline's price and significantly reduce U.S. oil consumption.
Large scale production of E85-powered hybrids is at least a decade away. Auto engineers still have to surmount technical hurdles, including superefficient power and propulsion systems that can put these vehicles' electricity and fuel costs at least on a par with today's gasoline-powered ones. But odds are that the technological advances will come eventually, which is why GM, Toyota and other automakers are researching advanced plug-ins.
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POSTED BY: Jim Ostroff (February 15, 2008 06:48 PM)
Jim Ostroff: The group that was established by Congress to ride herd over the electric utility industry, as well as private analysts, have warned several regions of the country face increased risk of blackouts, due to very thin supply margins, as early as this year. Hot summer nights or frigid winter ones strain power supplies. Adding megawatts of demand to recharge plug-ins at night likely would overtax power supplies in several areas. The power transmission situation being what it is, there are no guarantees power could be purchased to make up the shortfall. In fact, most electric power companies are working to slow the growth of electricity usage-- not increase it. Regarding E85 infrastructure development: The U.S. will not fund projects to build pipelines or delivery systems, regardless of who controls Congress and the White House. This will have to be done by private industry, or not at all. Prices for the Chevy Volt are meaningless now. They will be a lot lower once GM starts mass production. Kiplinger has said many times that automakers for years have had the techs needed to boost vehicles' mpg substantially. Why have they not done so? The vast majority of consumers don't care.
High pump prices have not dented gasoline purchases. The easy answer is to say this all is Madison Ave.'s doing--the invisible hand of the hidden persuaders. A bit too easy. Is it really advertising, or societal trends that has led a vast segment of the consuming public to demand SUVs, pickups, super-sized meals in fast-food restaurant and white linen ones, homes that are twice the average size they were a generation ago, movie screen-size TVs, more than one telephone per capita for every person living in the U.S.?
POSTED BY: Nome (February 18, 2008 02:13 PM)
Mr. Jim Ostroff. While you are partially right about some areas facing power shortages and would currently have difficulty supporting large numbers of plug-in electric cars, I feel that once again the potential savings from conservation are being ignored and the fact that more green power generation (including nuclear)will be coming on line in the coming years. Last year I easily reduced my own electric usage by 30% by going to CFL lighting and an energy efficient furnace and air conditioner. I now look forward to getting my first electric car and am already researching solar electric panels and a small wind generator to provide a large portion of the battery charging separate from the power grid.
As far as buying trends being affected by advertising are concerned, companies wouldn't be spending such huge amounts of money promoting manly pickups and luxurious SUVs if it didn't have a major effect on shaping purchases. When the cabal includes football players and beautiful women driving cool looking electric cars, I'm sure we will see a new market develop. Most people ARE followers.
The bottom line is that we absolutely must reduce our huge CO2 emissions before we even consider reducing what's already in the atmosphere. Either the days of the CO2 emitting auto are numbered or the days of our civilization will be. I am a retired scientist with no employer telling me what to say. As more scientific information is gathered daily, the potential effects of Global Warming only look more grim. While there are still many unknowns, the trends only continue to be more alarming.
POSTED BY: Gary (March 01, 2008 12:46 PM)
Mr. Jim Ostroff, I'm sorry I'm reading your article too late, but there seems to be an error in it. I do not believe that the Volt and Vuw sticker prices will be below the Prius. Both the Volt and Vuw will sticker for more than $30,000.
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