Obama, Huckabee Don't Have Time to Savor Wins

Both won big in Iowa but both have an even tougher row to hoe in New Hampshire, which votes in just four days.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

January 4, 2008

Sen. Barack Obama's win was truly impressive, but it's no guarantee it will give him the momentum to overpower Sen. Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. Iowa was always seen as a weak link in Clinton's armor. She has a far stronger history, backing and organization in New Hampshire, and she'll use that to try to stop Obama from steamrolling into South Carolina and Florida later this month, setting him up for a big day on Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5. On that day, more than 20 states, including California and New York, hold primaries or caucuses. Should Clinton succeed in New Hampshire -- and recent polls show them about even -- a drawn-out battle between the two is likely.

Mike Huckabee's huge win in Iowa -- coming just two months after he was written off by most pundits -- completely scrambles the GOP contest. But it doesn't make Huckabee a big favorite to win the nomination. In fact, odds are still against it. The Iowa win means he can roll into New Hampshire with considerable momentum, but he faces a much tougher challenge there. His victory in Iowa was driven by religious conservatives drawn to his background as a pastor turned politician. There are far fewer evangelicals in New Hampshire, and Huckabee's tenure as a governor of Arkansas who raised taxes will get far more scrutiny in that fiscally conservative state. Plus Huckabee has almost no money to spend there.

New Hampshire independents will be key to both contests -- plus they'll provide a clue to the November election. They make up over 40% of the state's registered voters, and they're free to vote in either primary. Will they back Republican John McCain, as they did in his 2000 New Hampshire victory? Or will they vote for Democrat Barack Obama, lifting him over Clinton as they did in Iowa? If they opt to vote in the Democratic primary by a large margin, that will be another bad omen for the GOP. Democratic turnout in Iowa was more than double the Republican turnout, showing the Democrats are far more energized than Republicans going into the 2008 campaign.

Who was hurt most by Iowa? On the Republican side, it was obviously Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, who poured millions into the state and came up well short of Huckabee. He'll need a commanding win in New Hampshire to stay truly viable, and that may not happen now, especially with McCain benefiting from a late surge. McCain suffers in the fund-raising area, but he may choose to go into debt to lift his prospects just as the primaries take place and in places that are more favorable to him.

Former N.C. Sen. John Edwards was also crippled by Iowa, though he edged out Clinton for second. Iowa offered his best chance of a win, and though he'll keep fighting for a while, he doesn't really have much chance in New Hampshire or beyond. His brand of liberal populism and focus on poverty won't sell as well with moderates and independents in New England and elsewhere.

All other Democrats are also out of it, either officially or unofficially. Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut formally dropped out after dismal showings in Iowa. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson did a little better and may hang on for some western primaries, but at best, he's a vice presidential candidate.

On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is far from vanquished, but his strategy of largely bypassing the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina looks like a big mistake. By the time Florida rolls around on Jan. 29, where he expects to do well, he risks being an also-ran. Still, if the other candidates split the early states, he can make a comeback in Florida and by doing well on Super Duper Tuesday.

Former GOP Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee may call it quits. He barely edged out McCain for third place in Iowa, although he spent much more time and money. His campaign just never caught on voters.

While few are paying much attention, there's one more contest before New Hampshire. Wyoming Republicans will caucus Saturday. It won't be decisive no matter the outcome, but it may provide some momentary lift to Romney, who has campaigned there more than others.

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