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Sales of both hybrid and diesel-power cars are accelerating. By 2012, sales of hybrids, which harness electric power to reduce gas consumption, will reach 1.3 million, a fourfold increase from this year. Sales of cars, SUVs and pickup trucks running on diesel fuel, which is more efficient, will total 1.5 million by then, about triple the number sold this year. Most will be pickups
New fuel economy regulations will help spur automakers to make more hybrids and diesel vehicles. Congress wants an average of 35 miles per gallon (mpg) for vehicle fleets by 2022, up from the current minimum of 27.5 mpg for passenger cars and 22.2 mpg for light trucks, SUVs and minivans. Hybrid and diesel vehicles will reach 15% of the market by 2012, vs. just 4% today, and nearly every automaker will offer them.
Of course, manufacturers won't abandon the gasoline engine. They'll use advanced injection systems and ultralight materials to boost the mileage of passenger cars and lightweight crossover SUVs. But, automakers will need more diesels and hybrids to boost the fleet's average mileage to compensate for some of their in-demand, larger vehicles, which have below 35 mpg average.
Vehicles powered by fuel cells, hydrogen and the electricity grid would fit the bill, but the needed technology for large-scale manufacturing of these alternative power vehicles is years away from prime time. Diesels and hybrids will get the nod because their technologies are now mainstream and don't require exotic power sources.
Diesel engines can get 30% to 40% better mileage than gasoline motors because diesels burn fuel more efficiently. They've advanced light years since the 1980s when diesel vehicles were synonymous with smelly, soot-spewing road machines that were balky and sometimes hard to start. Advances in catalysts and filters allow them to cut emissions and particulates dramatically, running as cleanly as gasoline-powered vehicles. Hybrids achieve roughly the same fuel savings as diesels by using heavy duty batteries to power vehicles at low speeds. The batteries are recharged by electricity generated during braking.
Most automakers are planning to roll out diesels as standard equipment or as an option within the next few years. The focus initially will be on hefty vehicles such as the Ford F-150, GM Silverado and Dodge Ram pickups. "Sales of light trucks and SUVs will continue to be substantial for automakers, so it makes sense to make diesels available for them first, since these [vehicles] have lower mpg and the greatest room for improvement," says Allen Schaeffer, executive director with the Diesel Technology Forum, a trade group.
Diesels also will get traction in larger passenger cars made by Mercedes, BMW, Cadillac, Saturn, Volkswagen and Audi, which is helping to boost their mileage.
Automakers won't make diesels standard equipment in every vehicle, because they carry a price premium over gasoline engines of $2,800 or more. The differential will decline with higher production volume, but automakers are betting many consumers will pay more to get superior mileage.
Hybrids cost $3,000 or more over standard cars, but many consumers aren't deterred by sticker shock. "Continually rising gas prices make hybrids more attractive and even though the pay-back period for them is longer than for diesels, many people don't do the calculation -- they want to own a hybrid," says Michael Omotoso, senior manager with J.D. Power & Associates’ global power train division.
A raft of suppliers will benefit by the surge in sales of alternative powered vehicles. For diesels: diesel engine makers BorgWarner, Denso, Delphi and Siemens VDO; turbocharger suppliers BorgWarner, Honeywell’s Garrett division and IHI; catalyst maker BASF; suppliers of precious metals for catalytic converters Johnson Matthew and Umicore. For hybrids: battery manufacturers JCI and Panasonic, along with companies that make electronic and mechanical systems such as Continental, Hitachi, TRW, ZF Sachs and others.
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POSTED BY: Tim (July 20, 2007 02:14 PM)
When are they going to come out with a diesel electric hybrid? It makes sense that if diesels are more efficient than gasoline engines then a diesel electric hybrid would beat a gasoline electric hybrid. Perhaps this is why diesel electric hybrid train engines have been the standard for several decades.
POSTED BY: Jerry Uppling (July 20, 2007 06:51 PM)
I always thought that the Law of Physics makes the value of Hybrids useless; exchanging one form of energy for another requires the same amount of energy either way regardless of source. Why can't we come up with another engine other than combustion.
POSTED BY: Jim Ostroff (August 01, 2007 02:27 PM)
First of all, hybrids don't violate the law of conservation. The key hybrid technology is "regenerative braking" -- as a hybrid coasts or slows down, it turns its momentum into stored electricity by using its electric motor as a generator. In a non-hybrid car, that same momentum is turned into heat by the wheel brakes, and thus lost. (Yes, hybrids still have regular wheel brakes, too, for really hard stops). Then the stored electricity is used up to help accelerate the car. That lowers the load on the gas engine, and thus improves the fuel mileage.
Diesel hybrids are on the horizon. Diesel and electric motors are not an ideal match, in part because they both develop strong torque -- good for pulling away from a stop -- but not so much horsepower -- which is what you need for high-speed passing. That's the gasoline engine's role in current hybrids.
Also, manufacturers are currently having a hard time making diesels clean enough for emissions regs. But these hurdles will be overcome -- look for diesel hybrids in the next decade.
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