McCain Faces Big Challenge as GOP Convention Opens

Picking Palin may provide a boost, but the GOP nominee still has his work cut out for him.

By Jon Frandsen, Senior Editor, Kiplinger.com

August 30, 2008

John McCain better learn to hum "I Walk the Line" because that's what he'll be doing next week during the Republican Party's convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn., trying to appeal to centrist and independent voters without alienating the party's conservative base. And his balancing act will not stop there.

The Republican candidate also must distance himself from President Bush, one of the most unpopular presidents in American history, without disagreeing on too many issues near and dear to GOP voters. Barack Obama and a host of other prominent Democrats made compelling prime-time arguments linking McCain to Bush for nearly a week, reminding viewers ad nauseum that he voted with Bush more than 90% of the time.

McCain will try to use his reputation as a maverick, which he sought to buttress with his surprising pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as the first woman on the GOP ticket, to persuade voters that he is no carbon copy of Bush or anyone else. McCain and Republican leaders will seek to draw a portrait of a rock-solid leader who is not only a principled conservative on most social and economic issues but also is independent-minded and bound by neither ideology nor beholden to special interests.

The central issue in the race is leadership ability. McCain says he offers America experience and judgment tempered by his time as a Vietnam prisoner of war and decades on the Hill. Moreover, Republicans will argue continuously that with a country waging two wars, facing continuous terrorist threats from Islamic extremists and threats of expansionism by a resurgent Russia, now is not the time to turn the reins of government over to a young freshman senator.

Democrats are trying to use McCain's quarter century in Congress against him by saying he repeatedly opposed important programs -- such as health care for veterans or bolstering alternative energy research. McCain says his record is packed with examples of working against the status quo and combating special interests and corruption. Convention-goers will hear repeatedly about his work on campaign and ethics reform and cracking down on tobacco companies.

Obama and newly crowned ticket-mate Joe Biden, meanwhile, are trying to immunize the young first-term senator against charges of being too inexperienced by arguing that it is judgment, not age or hands-on experience that enables a president to stare down world leaders, handle crises that could mean life or death to thousands or stand up to a cagey and often cantankerous Congress.

The key to the Democratic attack is to be hard-hitting yet respectful. The tack so far has been to acknowledge McCain's heroism and service and to not question his motives. But it's open season on his judgment and whether he truly understands the plight of working-class and middle-class Americans. Count on hearing from the Democrats for the rest of the campaign about how McCain's supposedly poor judgment is underscored by his support of the Iraq war and continued refusal to set a withdrawal date, even though Bush and Iraq and are negotiating one. Or his unwillingness to pay attention to Afghanistan in recent years despite growing resistance from the Taliban and its allies. Or his support for continuing tax cuts aimed mostly at the wealthy despite rapidly mounting federal debt. And his lack of alarm over the state of the weakened economy.

It's too early to tell whether Palin will be an asset. She's a huge gamble. On the one hand, McCain adds to a year of astounding firsts -- not only is Obama the first African American nominated to a major party ticket, but now the GOP has its first female vice-presidential candidate. McCain is presumably trolling for support from disillusioned backers of Hillary Clinton, but Obama polls pretty well with women in general and it's hard to see many flocking to Palin, not with her opposition to abortion and gun control.

McCain has certainly brought some youth and vitality to the ticket. But while Obama tried to complement his abilities with Biden's broadly acknowledged mastery of foreign policy and national security issues, McCain's pick -- at least on its face -- wouldn't appear to do much to assuage concerns about his age. If McCain wins, he would be the oldest president ever elected to a first term. While he may be trying to bridge gaps between young and old, Palin's slight experience will do little to reassure voters worried about what happens if McCain, who has had two bouts with cancer, falls ill or dies.

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