Immigration Emerging as Key issue in the 2008 Elections

In every election, there's one issue that ignites the passion of voters, making it potentially decisive. In 2008, that issue may well be immigration.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

November 28, 2007

With the first primary votes just six weeks away, immigration is becoming a touchstone issue for candidates in both parties, threatening to be decisive in both national and local campaigns. It's far from the top concern of a majority of voters -- Iraq, health care and the economy all outrank it on that list. But for a strong and very vocal minority, it's becoming the kind of passionate issue that brings more voters to the polls, often enough to swing an election.

The heated and decisive debate is bad news for the thousands of employers who are hoping for a comprehensive legislative approach to immigration, one that increases the number of high-tech and low-skilled visas and includes a large guest worker program. These employers are dependent on foreign labor and fear severe shortages if tough border enforcement measures aren't accompanied by an expansion of legal immigration programs.

The problem is that a polarizing dispute hurts long term. It pushes the candidates into unbending stands, making compromise considerably harder after the election is over and a new Congress and president sit down to work.

It's also bad news for the Democrats, who are stuck dancing around the immigration issue. Their base, which includes many Hispanics, wants an immigration bill to contain some way for illegals to make amends and earn U.S. citizenship. But most Republicans and many independents strongly object, saying that equals amnesty.

Democrats need to find a middle path to keep their own base happy without alienating independents. That's awfully tricky, however, as the dispute over drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants has proven. Hillary Clinton's attempts to thread the needle on that issue opened her up to charges of flip-flopping, forcing her to eventually come out against licenses, although most of her opponents and most Democrats favor them on road safety concerns.

The GOP is more united on immigration, with the presidential candidates arguing over who is tougher on illegals. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who once urged a balanced approach, has moved sharply to the anti-illegal immigrant side because that's where most of the party's primary voters are. But the GOP position creates its own set of problems. It dooms their hopes of making major inroads with Hispanic voters, and it's already costing Republicans support from some business leaders who pushed hard for an immigration overhaul.

Other issues seem to be working FOR the Democratic candidates. Americans are angrier than they've been in years, fed up with Washington, which can't seem to do anything about their concerns. Although voters blame both parties for the gridlock, they place most of the blame on Republicans. In almost all public opinion polls, voters say they'd rather have the Democrats handling the Iraq war, health care, the economy and education. The GOP receives more backing only on keeping taxes low and fighting terrorism, among major issues, but even on these, the Republican advantage is smaller than the party has had in the past.

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