GOP Presidential Race: Is Fred Thompson for Real?

It's late and it won't be easy, but the stars may be aligned for the actor to have a serious run at the White House.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

April 20, 2007

Fred Thompson is nearly ready to run for president, a prospect that would change the 2008 presidential race overnight. Revealing earlier this month that he has lymphoma in remission was a preparatory move, lowering the risk that the health issue might derail the campaign. His visit with Republican lawmakers this week to hear their thoughts on his running was also an indication that he is seriously inclined.

Republicans are already enthused about Thompson, an actor-turned-senator-turned-actor, who is better known to Americans than most other candidates. Speculation and media interest are keeping his star on the rise. He's running second in GOP polls, just behind ex-New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain. It's an enviable position to be in, considering he has done essentially no campaigning or fund-raising.

Sure, some of that is due to name recognition from years in movies and on TV in macho roles, but it's also a reflection of the fact that 60% of Republicans say nobody else in the presidential race is really grabbing them.

Still, a run won't be easy. Thompson is late to the money chase. His voting record representing Tennessee in the Senate from 1994 through 2002 won't please all Republicans, particularly his support of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance legislation that banned large soft money donations to the national parties. He'd have to deal with much wider media scrutiny if he ran, too, as well as negative opposition research from other candidates. Also, others may jump in: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska will wait until fall to decide whether to run.

Raising money would be the chief initial concern for Thompson. Close to $100 million is needed to be considered a credible national candidate in preparation for the front-packed primaries early next year. Thompson would have to score very well in the earliest tests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and that requires organization.

Internet fund-raising would be critical to his campaign at first, allowing him to show broad appeal and to rise to the money level of other major candidates in the Republican race who have been raising, but also spending, for months now. A few single mega fund-raisers could also put him right in contention and possibly strip support from McCain, Giuliani and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in the process.

Unlike McCain, Thompson is not inextricably linked to the war in Iraq. That could help with Republicans who have grown frustrated with the Bush administration's war policy. He also has a generally conservative voting record that appeals to many Republicans who question the conservative credentials of the other top candidates. Hailing from the South is also a plus, as it has been in many modern presidential campaigns.

A Thompson brain trust? For a campaign, at least, he would be able to assemble a formidable and well-connected team, including former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker and Bill Frist and Sen. Lamar Alexander, all from Tennessee, as well as Tennessee GOP Reps. Zach Wamp and John Duncan, both of whom have been working on a draft Thompson publicity campaign.

A decision by Thompson could come in a few weeks. He has several speaking engagements to Republican groups coming up in early May. These events are possibly the perfect opportunities for an announcement tour.

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