Election 2008: Is this the Year of the Superdelegate?

A small group of party luminaries -- not delegates elected by voters -- may have a huge say in the nomination.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

January 25, 2008

With split decisions in early primaries and no clear front-runners, 2008 may well be the year when superdelegates become the real deciders in the party nomination fights. Odds are growing that one or both races will go to the wire, with no candidate capturing a majority before the summer conventions.

That would give a super role to what Democrats call superdelegates -- lawmakers, governors and other party officials -- who make up about 20% of each party's delegates and who aren't bound by primary, caucus or convention decisions. They're all up for grabs and they could hold the balance of power. (Republicans call their top officials unpledged delegates but they serve a similar purpose.)

Superdelegates haven't mattered much in recent presidential campaigns because nominees were largely chosen by primary voters well ahead of the conventions. But this year could be different.

The Republican race is wide open. It's not hard to see three or more candidates still in contention after Super Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5, when over 20 states hold primaries or caucuses. Arizona Sen. John McCain, Massachusetts former-Gov. Mitt Romney, Arkansas former-Gov. Mike Huckabee and ex-New York City Major Rudy Giuliani are all still in contention.

The Democrats could also have a long, pitched battle, with neither Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York nor Barack Obama of Illinois winning enough votes.

Democrats have 792 superdelegates out of a total of 4049 delegates, with 2025 votes needed to win the nomination. Republicans have 463 unpledged delegates out of 2380, with 1191 votes needed for a majority.

Watch endorsements for clues on how superdelegates will vote, but even early endorsements by high ranking officials does not always translate into a certain vote at the convention, especially if there is still a huge nomination battle ahead. Obama scored big recently, picking up the coveted backing of Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska.

Clinton outpaces Obama in having more elected officials in her corner, at least for now. Some superdelegates may wait to see how the nomination fight unfolds for several more weeks before making an official endorsement.

Republicans are mostly keeping their powder dry on the superdelegate rush, although more effort is being seen among top contenders to shore up support. Sen. John McCain, Ariz., may be at a disadvantage, though. He has ruffled the feathers of many superdelegates with maverick votes on important GOP issues.

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