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The Kiplinger Washington Editors
July 3, 2008
 

Big-Bank Woes
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The largest U.S. banks are hurting badly, and the pain is starting to spread. Most small and midsize banks are still ready to lend to businesses, but they're getting nervous. This week's Kiplinger Letter examines the outlook.
 
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Is Business Firmly Behind McCain? Not Quite

It's not just the GOP conservative base that McCain must rally -- company executives have some doubts of their own.
 
 

Most business leaders will ultimately back Sen. John McCain's presidential bid, but how enthusiastic will they be and how hard will they work on his behalf? Business executives are contributing plenty of money to candidates in both parties in hopes of having a say in big policy decisions. But they already know the next president won't be as big a champion of their interests as the current occupant of the White House, who vigorously pursued a pro-business agenda without apology.

McCain, the all-but-certain GOP nominee, has had a love-hate relationship with business, alternately pleasing and annoying corporate executives and business lobbies. That probably won't change if he's elected.

The Arizonan has often been a hero to business, whether touting immigration reform with a guest worker plan to ease labor strains or fighting for tort reform, such as product liability and medical malpractice legislation that caps damages. As the chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, McCain consistently favored deregulation and held regulatory agencies to account.

But he has also opposed business goals, railing against what he calls corporate pork and pushing more regulation of the tobacco and pharmaceutical industries. Of heightened concern now is global warming. McCain backs mandates and a cap-and-trade plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions, an idea that industries oppose and one that could affect bottom lines.

His mixed record is evident on taxes. He favors making Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax reductions permanent, but initially voted against them, saying they were too costly, too weighted to the wealthiest, and later questioned whether they should continue in light of mounting war costs.

His earlier position is not far from what Democratic contenders Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama say now. Democrats would keep Bush's tax cuts in place for middle-incomers, but raise rates for families making over $250,000.

McCain opposes ending the estate tax but would hike the exclusion to $10 million, while both Obama and Clinton favor exclusions of about $3.5 million. All three would limit the alternative minimum tax -- in different ways -- but none really explains how they'd pay for it.

They differ on the current 15% top rate for long term capital gains and dividend income. McCain would keep it in place without change. Clinton would raise it for the wealthiest filers, and Obama would raise it to 25% for everyone.

Obama and Clinton would keep the top corporate tax rate at 35%, while taxing more income earned abroad and trying to close loopholes. McCain wants a lower 25% or 30% top rate, but that would be hard to pass. He also wants to end several programs that provide corporate subsidies. He'd also back more free trade agreements without the conditions that Democrats often want on labor and environmental standards in developing countries.

All three are strong promoters of an emerging green economy and of the U.S. taking the leading role in developing technology and industrial processes and policies to cut carbon emissions. A large federal commitment in this area, especially in research and development, will spur new business markets, no doubt, even as green policies could place new burdens on some businesses.

McCain's overarching free-market philosophy is more in sync with business than either of his potential Democratic opponents. He advocates smaller government, while Democrats favor a bigger role, believing Washington should prod businesses to trim excessive CEO pay, provide close scrutiny of financial markets and better protect consumers.

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