Bird Flu Still a Threat to the U.S.
The risk is actually growing, and too many businesses have let down their guard.
By Martha Lynn Craver, Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter
December 28, 2007
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Avian flu is rarely in the headlines, but it remains a serious danger for its potential to trigger a pandemic, according to health officials. "It's even more of a threat because it's been mutating. Every time it mutates, there's a greater probability that it will become more easily transmitted to humans," says Tommy Thompson, chairman of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions and a former secretary of the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services.
If the virus does reach the point where it is easily spread among humans, millions could die, especially if many people are caught unprepared. Too many have let down their guard, letting the lack of publicity lull them into complacency. That's because only 80 human cases have been reported this year, down from 116 in 2006. Pakistan is the latest country to report the arrival of avian flu, with eight confirmed cases.
The economic impact of a pandemic also would be horrendous. A report by Trust for America's Health says it could result in the second-worst recession in the U.S. since World War II. The U.S. gross domestic product would drop more than 5.5%, leading to an estimated $683-billion loss. Pandemics tend to surface about every 30 years. The last pandemic, in 1968, was relatively mild, killing 34,000 people in the U.S. and 700,000 worldwide. One of the worst pandemics occurred in 1918, when 500,000 Americans and approximately 50 million people died worldwide.
The good news is that U.S. health officials are better prepared than in the past, although much more needs to be done. Today there is more training and equipment, with better communications in place than last year. Also, national and local officials are further along with making plans, and there's no longer a shortage of antiviral drugs to combat the virus. Real progress is being made in developing a vaccine. "We are at a higher level of preparedness because we have had the gift of time," says Jeff Levy, executive director of the Trust for America's Health.
The bad news is that many businesses have let down their guard. Earlier, there was a big effort, mostly among large employers, to plan for a possible outbreak. Plans included arrangements to allow employees to work from remote locations and to deal with supply chain interruptions. But the uncertainty of when a pandemic may occur and the need to focus on more-immediate economic issues have caused efforts to peter out. Some industries are ahead of the curve -- financial services, pharmaceuticals and utility companies, for example. "Companies that are visionary and prepare will survive and grow," says Thompson.
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Reader Comments (1)
Posted by: dr david hill at 12/29/2007 04:09:02 PM
Human-to-Human Transmitted Avian Flu – We have to move from a Cure Strategy to a Prevention Strategy before it is too late The strategy to prevent hundreds of millions of people dying (possibly over a billion) across the globe from the Avian Flu pandemic is totally flawed. This reliance that governments around the world have placed on predominantly vaccination (cure) only is a decision that history will record as one of the most insane and insidious decisions that has ever been taken by our political leaders. This assertion is based upon the facts that the eventual human-to-human killer virus that will emerge will be a new strain due to the fact that viruses constantly mutate and that owing to the initial incubation period for bird flu to show its ugly face, the virus will have spread like wildfire across the world through millions travelling internationally on a daily basis. Indeed, the avian flu strain is 20 times more virulent than the 1917/18 Spanish flu that killed between 50 million and 100 million people, but where this time, literally hundreds of millions will perish with this ill thought out strategy by our political leaders and governments. What should have been undertaken is that this highly contagious disease should have been addressed at its source (prevention) and where history again will confirm this eventual conclusion. Unfortunately by then, this terrible event will have taken place. Governments should rethink therefore before it is too late and adopt predominantly a ‘field’ strategy, for this is the only strategy that will work and stop the unimaginable happening. Governments have been warned continuously, but where they do not wish to listen due to the powerful overtones delivered to our political leaders by the giant pharmaceuticals in their quest for profits (or selfish greed dependant on which point-of-view one wishes to take). One has to remember also that since 2003 the human mortality rate through the bird flu virus has been 62% and where only 38 people on average out of every hundred has survived. Overall therefore it has to be said that these vast profit-orientated pharmaceutical companies have not stopped any of these deaths through their highly expensive drugs and where things will be no different when the eventual pandemic arrives. It is hoped therefore that for the sake of humankind, that a major sea change takes place within the thinking of our political leaders in 2008, from one of cure to prevention, and before time literally runs out on us all. Indeed, in 2007, CNN.Com determined that 87% of voters considered that health agencies would NOT be able to respond effectively if there was an avian flu pandemic. These are therefore not fear factors but factors derived from pure logic and facts determined by some of the leading authoritative thinkers on the subject. Dr David Hill World Innovation Foundation Bern, Switzerland UK Postal Address: P O Box A60, Huddersfield, HD1 1XJ, United Kingdom UK Tel:0044(0)1484 537181 28th December 2007