2008 Senate Races: Democratic Gains Likely

A year before Election Day, Republicans seem sure to lose more seats in the Senate.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter

November 8, 2007

It's all uphill for Republicans next year in their attempt to regain control of the Senate. Retirements and a number of competitive races will make it tough for the GOP to avoid losing three or four seats to the Democrats; there's almost no chance they'll pick up the seat or two they'll need to retake control.

Each seat lost by Republicans will increase the ability of Democrats to manage the entire legislative process. A gain of four seats, for example, would put Democrats at 55 -- just five shy of the 60 needed to shut off filibusters and control debate.

Republicans started with a big strike against them: Because they did well six years ago, they must defend 22 seats, while Democrats have to defend only 12. But the numbers are just the beginning of the GOP's woes.

Many of the GOP seats are in states where Democrats have been making gains as voters become more unhappy over the war, the economy and the general direction of the country. As a result, one year ahead of the elections, nine Republican seats are in jeopardy, while only two Democratic seats are. And of those nine competitive GOP seats, four are open because of retirements, so Democrats won't have to overcome all the advantages an entrenched incumbent can bring to the campaign. The GOP retirees are John Warner of Virginia, Wayne Allard of Colorado, Pete Domenici of New Mexico and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska. All four represent states that are no longer rock-solid Republican.

Although incumbents rarely lose, five Republicans and two Democrats running for reelection face particularly tough challenges. We give each somewhat better than even odds of winning reelection, but much will depend on what happens in the next several months. The five Republicans at risk:

Alaska. Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, is the subject of an FBI probe into allegations of political corruption in dealings with some campaign donors. His opponent will probably be Mark Begich, the popular Democratic mayor of Anchorage, a city that accounts for more than 40% of the state's population. Stevens is 84 and could decide to retire, especially if the investigation heats up. Of all the GOP incumbents, he may face the most difficult challenge.

Maine. Susan Collins, ranking member of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, is likely to face Rep. Tom Allen (D), who represents the vote-rich Portland area. Her moderate voting record has cost her support with antiwar factions.

Minnesota. Norm Coleman is expected to be pitted against either comedian and political satirist Al Franken or attorney Michael Ciresi. Coleman, whose support of the Iraq war has put him at odds with many voters in his state, may benefit from Democratic divisions unless Democrats coalesce behind a candidate soon.

New Hampshire. John Sununu, a first-term senator who barely won six years ago with 51% of the vote, is expected to face the same opponent -- former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu's largely conservative voting record and his support of the Iraq war could upset more moderate New Hampshire voters.

Oregon. Gordon Smith will probably be running against Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Oregon is becoming increasingly favorable to Democrats, but Smith, who has been a vocal critic of Iraq war policy after having voted to authorize the war, is a seasoned campaigner, well funded and with a strong statewide organization in place. Still, if there is a Democratic wave next year, he could be swept out.

Two Democratic senators also face tough races:

Louisiana. Mary Landrieu's last two elections were about as tight as they could be. If there is a backlash from voters over post-Hurricane Katrina foul-ups, she could be affected because much of her base in previous elections was in and around New Orleans. Her opponent will probably be state Treasurer John N. Kennedy (R).

South Dakota. Sen. Tim Johnson may face Republican Joel Dykstra, a representative in the state legislature, or GOP Gov. Mike Rounds, who has not announced but is said to be interested. Johnson almost lost in 2002 to Republican John Thune, who two years later toppled Democratic Sen. Tom Daschle. Although he remains popular in the low-population state and has earned much support from years of careful constituent service, Johnson has been on a long recovery from a debilitating brain hemorrhage.

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