Business & Politics
14 Senate Races You Need to Watch
These races will decide whether the Senate follows the House in going Republican this fall.
By Mark Willen, Senior Political Editor, The Kiplinger Letter
September 30, 2010
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Democrats are in trouble. They pinned hopes for a comeback on a summer of recovery, but growth has been disappointing and the jobless rate is stubbornly high. We now think Republicans are likely to win control of the House in November and come very close in the Senate.
View the top races as a slide show: 14 Senate Races to Watch)
Can Republicans actually seize the Senate as well as the House? Yes, but it remains unlikely. The GOP would need a net gain of 10 seats to win control, a tall order even in what will clearly be a bad year for Democrats.
Republicans can pretty much count on picking up two seats -- the one being vacated by Democrat Byron Dorgan in North Dakota and the one in Arkansas, where incumbent Blanche Lincoln trails badly.
Beyond that, we’ve identified 14 key races for Senate seats -- nine now in Democratic hands -- that will determine how close Republicans get. The GOP has an advantage in six, while Democrats have an edge in only two. The other six are toss-ups. To take control, the GOP has to almost run the table, winning 13 of the 14 key contests.
California (now Democratic)
Democrat: Third-term incumbent Barbara Boxer
Republican: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
2008 results: Obama 61%, McCain 37%
Jobless rate: 12.3%
Our take: Leans to Democratic hold
In any other year, Boxer wouldn’t be in trouble, but the antiestablishment tide is lapping at the West Coast, and she’s in her toughest race ever. Though Boxer won in 2004 with 57.8% of the vote, her outspoken liberal views don’t resonate as well as they used to, even in California. And Fiorina fits the mold of the outsider better than most.
Fiorina also has lots of money -- most of it her own -- to throw into the race, which she’ll have to do soon. As of June 30, Boxer had $11.3 million on hand to Fiorina’s $952,786. In addition to the cash advantage, Boxer is a tireless and effective campaigner, while Fiorina has yet to prove herself on the hustings. The edge has to go to the incumbent, though not by much. In recent polls, Boxer has held a small but steady lead.
Colorado (now Democratic)
Democrat: Two-year incumbent Michael Bennet
Republican: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck
2008 results: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Jobless rate: 8%
Our take: Toss-up
This race is really just beginning because both Bennet and Buck had to work hard to beat back tough challengers in the Aug. 10 primaries. Bennet overcame the antiestablishment trend by winning the Democratic nomination, with a strong assist from President Obama and party officials. Bennet, who was appointed to U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar’s old seat, earned a solid reputation as superintendent of public schools in Denver and chief of staff to Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. But he is untested as a political candidate.
Buck, a favorite of the Tea Party, has positioned himself as an outsider, opposing the health care law and the stimulus and arguing for more tax cuts and gun owners’ rights. Buck worked for the U.S. Department of Justice and served as chief of the criminal division in the Colorado U.S. Attorney's Office before being elected Weld County district attorney in 2004.
This is one race where the incumbent is embracing Obama, who’s expected ethe president to campaign for Bennet and help raise money. One other plus for Bennet: Democrats have a strong gubernatorial candidate in Hickenlooper, Bennet’s old boss. That could increase Democratic turnout.
Delaware (now Democratic)
Democrat: New Castle County Executive Chris Coons
Republican: U.S. Rep. Mike Castle
2008 results: Obama 62%, McCain 37%
Jobless rate: 8.4%
Our take: Likely Republican takeover
O’Donnell’s stunning upset of nine-term U.S. Rep. Mike Castle turned this likely Republican victory into an almost sure GOP defeat in November, depriving Republicans of a valuable Senate pickup. While O’Donnell has plenty of money and backing from out-of-state Tea Party sympathizers, she has made little progress with this very Democratic and moderate state.
Coons isn’t taking victory for granted. He’s a dynamic campaigner and well known in the most populous county of a state that remains solidly Democratic. And he’ll get plenty of help from President Obama and Vice President Biden, who wants to make sure his old seat remains in Democratic hands.
Florida (now Republican)
Democrat: U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek
Republican: Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio
Independent: Gov. Charlie Crist
2008 results: Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Jobless rate: 11.5%
Our take: Toss-up
Rubio became the darling of national conservative groups, and the party establishment began flocking to his side last spring, but since Crist dropped out of the GOP primary and decided to run as an independent, Rubio has moved away from angry rhetoric to offer more concrete policy positions, adding nuance to his positions on hot-button social issues such as immigration.
Meek, the son of longtime U.S. Rep. Carrie Meek, won the Democratic primary easily over Jeff Greene, a businessman who poured millions of his own money into the campaign, but Meek has yet to catch on with independents.
Crist was quickly written off as not having a chance, but he’s defied the pundits and is running slightly ahead in polls. He’s betting, with some success so far, that Floridians are tired of the partisan warfare and want someone who will be able to work for compromises in the Senate. His problem will be finding donors willing to bankroll his campaign.
Crist refuses to say which party he will caucus with if he wins, although many assume from recent positions he’s taken that it will be with Democrats. Either way, he’s sure to be as independent as Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman. He wouldn’t be a vote that either party could automatically count on.
Illinois (now Democratic)
Democrat: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias
Republican: Five-term U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk
2008 results: Obama 62%, McCain 37%
Jobless rate: 10.3%
Our take: Leans to Republican takeover
This is Obama’s old Senate seat, a fact that immediately raises the stakes and makes the contest a symbol of the entire battle for Senate control. Kirk and Giannoulias are both running tough -- some would say nasty -- negative campaigns, tearing each other down at every opportunity. And each candidate is giving the other plenty to work with.
Giannoulias survived a bitter primary in which opponents spent millions to make sure voters knew that the bank his family owns was taken over by federal regulators, costing the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation almost $400 million. What made that so difficult for Giannoulias was that he had highlighted his experience with the bank when he ran for state treasurer in 2006.
Kirk, a moderate, escaped a serious primary challenge by shifting his stance to the right, but that could hurt him in the general election. Some questionable claims he made about his career in the Navy also could come back to haunt him.
Public polls show a virtual tie, but that’s a bad sign for Giannoulias, given the history of the seat. and is largely Democratic. Expect Obama to campaign heavily and to help fill Giannoulias’ campaign coffers, which were about one-fourth as big as Kirk’s at the end of June.
Indiana (now Democratic)
Democrat: Two-term U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth
Republican: Former U.S. Sen. Dan Coats
2008 results: Obama 50%, McCain 49%
Jobless rate: 10.2%
Our take: Leans to Republican takeover
Coats starts with a huge advantage in name recognition, but the gap is sure to narrow as the election draws closer. Ellsworth, who was elected to Congress in 2006 to represent the southwestern corner of the state, didn’t start campaigning until May because incumbent Evan Bayh waited until the eleventh hour to announce his retirement. Both sides expect the race to tighten considerably.
Ellsworth has a good fund-raising operation, is a good campaigner and has a generally centrist voting record for the state, which, unlike most of the Great Lakes states, lacks an industrial base and has a strong southern influence. Ellsworth’s albatross is his vote for the health care law, which remains very unpopular here. Coats’ Achilles’ heel is his work as a Washington lawyer and lobbyist since he retired from the Senate in 1998 -- no one wants to be known as an insider this year. Adding to concerns was some early shakiness on his return to the campaign trail in the GOP primary.
Kentucky (now Republican)
Democrat: State Att. Gen. Jack Conway
Republican: Ophthalmologist Rand Paul
2008 results: McCain 58%, Obama 41%
Jobless rate: 9.9%
Our take: Leans Republican
When Rand Paul, a Tea Party-backed candidate and son of Texas Rep. Ron Paul, beat the GOP establishment-backed candidate in the primary, Democratic chances of taking the seat of retiring Republican Jim Bunning rose significantly. But Kentucky is still GOP territory, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the dean of Kentucky politics, will do what he can to avoid a loss in his own backyard.
Paul, though, isn’t making it easy. While he’s tapped into simmering voter anger at the governing establishment in Washington, he’s also made many voters nervous with his legal critique of the Civil Rights Act and his defense of BP in the oil spill. But Conway’s support of the health care law and the stimulus will work against him with many Kentucky voters.
Missouri (now Republican)
Democrat: Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan
Republican: Seven-term U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt
2008 results: McCain 49.4% , Obama 49.3%
Jobless rate: 9.2%
Our take: Likely Republican hold
Missouri was split almost evenly in the 2008 presidential race, and 2010 may also be close. Blunt has held a consistent lead in the polls, mostly by convincing voters that Carnahan would be a rubberstamp for Obama’s policies. But as one of the GOP’s former top leaders in the House, Blunt’s ties to the establishment are also a weak spot, and his vote for TARP, the Troubled Asset Relief Program, in 2008 is weighing him down. Carnahan has been running TV ads attacking him for it.
Both candidates have long political bloodlines in the state. Carnahan’s father, Mel Carnahan, was finishing a second term as governor in 2000 when he died in a plane crash while campaigning to unseat Republican Senate incumbent John Ashcroft. Voters elected him posthumously, and his wife, Jean Carnahan, was appointed to the seat, only to lose a close special election in 2002. Russ Carnahan, Robin’s brother, is a three term congressman.
Blunt, meanwhile, is the father of Matt Blunt, who was elected governor in 2004 but struggled with low job approval ratings and decided not to seek a second term in the 2008 election.
Nevada (now Democratic)
Democrat: Four-term incumbent Harry Reid
Republican: Former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle
2008 results: Obama 55%, McCain 43%
Jobless rate: 14.3%
Our take: Leans Democratic< /B>
Six months ago, it looked like Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was roadkill, with little or no chance of winning reelection to a fifth term. But when Republicans nominated Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle, a former state assemblywoman, they gave Reid a chance to rise from the dead.
The 24-year Senate veteran remains deeply unpopular in his home state, where unemployment is well above the national average and where Obama initiatives such as the health care law have not gone over well. But Angle’s controversial statements calling for a phaseout of Social Security, abolishment of several Cabinet agencies as well as denouncing the BP compensation fund as a slush fund have turned off many voters. And Reid has the money and knife-wielding campaign style to make the most of her missteps.
Polls have the two running neck and neck, but the negative onslaught is just beginning. A lot will hinge on the single debate the two candidates have agreed to on Oct. 14. If Reid pulls out a victory, and we think he probably will, it will be because voters found Angle just too hard to swallow.
New Hampshire (now Republican)
Democrat: U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes
Republican: Former State Att. Gen. Kelly Ayotte (Likely)
2008 results: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Jobless rate: 5.8%
Our take: Toss-up
Ayotte seems sure to win the Sept. 14 primary, but she may end up carrying fatal wounds into the November battle. The primary has been nasty, with her opponents attacking her ties to Washington and the financial support she has accepted from lobbyists, big corporations and Wall Street. Sarah Palin’s endorsement will help Ayotte win the primary but could turn off some independents she’ll need in November.
Hodes, a two-term congressman, has no serious primary opposition, which will give him a full campaign chest for the dash to November as he tries to capture the seat of retiring Sen. Judd Gregg. New Hampshire has trended Democratic in recent elections as the influx of people from Massachusetts has grown, though there is much dissatisfaction with the latest goings-on in Washington. That makes this race a hard one to call.
Ohio (now Republican)
Democrat: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher
Republican: Former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman
2008 results: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Jobless rate: 10.3%
Our take: Leans to Republican hold
Rob Portman seems set to defy the antiestablishment trend, winning despite a Washington résumé that includes service in the House and in the George W. Bush administration, where he ran the budget office. Fisher has been slow to engage in the campaign, and with early voting beginning Sept. 28, that may prove fatal.
Fisher got a late start because of a tough primary campaign that left him with a big fund-raising hole. As of June 30, Portman had a 7-1 money advantage, and national Democrats seem in no hurry to help Fisher out. Fisher has also had to wrestle with the loss of key staff and a muddled message. While he struggles, Portman is running hard, honing his message and gaining a lead in the polls.
Pennsylvania (now Democratic)
Democrat: Two-term U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak
Republican: Former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey
2008 results: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Jobless rate: 9.3%
Our take: Toss-up
Sestak went against Obama and the Democratic Party establishment to oust incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, who switched parties to become a Democrat to improve his reelection chances. Now Sestak has to overcome his state’s economic anxieties, its opposition to the health care law and the growing antiestablishment mood.
Sestak scored surprise endorsements from two famously independent politicians. Former GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, who retired in 2008, and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who switched from Democrat to Republican before turning independent to seek an unprecedented third term.
Toomey served as head of the fiscally conservative Club for Growth and will have plenty of backing from the group, which pushes an agenda of lower spending, more tax cuts and less government regulation. He’s trying hard to tie Sestak to Obama and claim the outsider mantle for himself, insisting he left Congress five years ago, while Sestak is still serving. But Toomey’s résumé includes Wall Street banker and lobbyist, making it hard for him to go that route. Still, if the antiestablishment wave blankets Pennsylvania, Toomey may eke out a win.
Washington (now Democratic)
Democrat: Three-term incumbent Patty Murray
Republican: Former state Sen. Dino Rossi
2008 results: Obama 58%, McCain 40%
Jobless rate: 8.9%
Our take: Toss-up
Murray won reelection easily in 1998 and 2004, and early this year, many pundits put her in the safe category. But a lot has changed, and she faces her toughest opponent in 18 years in Rossi, who lost the 2004 governor’s race to Democrat Christine Gregoire by a razor-thin margin and is well known throughout the state.
The two candidates couldn’t differ more on issues. While Murray has supported almost all of Obama’s agenda, Rossi wants to repeal health care and financial reform legislation, stop stimulus grants and use the money to pay down the debt. He says he would have voted against Supreme Court nominees Sonya Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. Washington, once a bellwether swing state, has lately moved solidly into the Democratic fold. Whether that holds in this volatile election year will likely determine Murray’s fate.
Wisconsin (now Democratic):
Democrat: Incumbent Russ Feingold
Republican: Businessman Ron Johnson (Likely)
2008 results: Obama 56%, McCain 42%
Jobless rate: 7.8%
Our take: Toss-up
Feingold is another incumbent once thought to be safe but now locked in a tough race. He has spent his 18-year Senate career positioning himself as a political outsider, joining Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in campaign finance reform and fighting against the Patriot Act because he believed that certain provisions eroded civil liberties. That earned him the respect of Wisconsin voters in what is still a pretty Democratic state. But in this year of political outsiders, Feingold is up against the genuine article.
Johnson, owner of Pacur Inc., an Oshkosh-based plastics company, is a political novice who entered the race after the health care law passed, calling it an assault on personal freedom and a threat to the country because of its potential effect on the national debt. He’s doing very well at fund-raising and winning the support of conservatives and Tea Party activists, and he’s a heavy favorite to win the GOP Senate primary on Sept. 14. The odds only slightly favor Feingold, and if the anti-incumbent wave gets big enough, it could sweep him out of office.
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Reader Comments (2)
Posted by: Jesse Holland at 09/07/2010 02:06:23 PM
I am United States Senate candidate Jesse Holland and I am running to represent Nevada. I am spending my own money to fight for us, the people. Have we blindly forgotten that our country has been raped by both parties? Do you think that money from Unions and PACs are given without favor? Is not the track record of 40-50 years reason enough to go with Independents or NonPartisans? Tainted by millions, Party System Candidates are throwing money around like water purchasing the media. Dont believe the purchased media What happened to the American People and what happened to the people of the state of Nevada? Why are cheering for political slavery? I constantly receive requests to trade truth for money. I refuse to allow slavery and chains to continue to be wrapped around our future generations. Emails arrive every day asking me to send Republicans and Democrats money to help battle the war for the party to take over our country, the house, the senate, etc. The country is yours and not theirs please remember you are the government and not them! Stand up- think and Vote responsibly!
Posted by: Lock Piatt at 09/15/2010 06:09:39 PM
It is all about turn out and that is going to favor the Conservatives by a large margin. Many primaries had much higher Republican vote counts. Some were 65% 35%.